What follows below is a ranking of all 32 NFL teams. To build this list, we consulted five objective measures of team strength: Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, ESPN’s Football Power Index, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings and statistician Jeff Sagarin’s NFL ratings. We then used a composite of those measures as a guidepost.
We’ve included Super Bowl odds for the top 10 teams and top-five draft pick odds for the bottom 10 teams.
1. New England Patriots (record: 10-3; composite ranking: 2.8)
Last week: 27-20 loss to Dolphins
Next: at Steelers, vs. Bills, vs. Jets
Week 14 ranking: 1
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 13.7 percent
Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins snapped an eight-game streak in which the Patriots had not allowed more than 17 points in a game. Up next: the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have won five of the seven games they’ve played at Heinz Field.
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-3; 5.0)
Last week: 31-24 loss to Panthers
Next: vs. Bengals, at Packers, vs. Bears
Week 14 ranking: 2
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.6 percent
Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen has 13 sacks this season. The entire Bucs defense has 17.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2; 5.2)
Last week: 39-38 win over Ravens
Next: vs. Patriots, at Texans, vs. Browns
Week 14 ranking: 6
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 17.4 percent
Fantasy footballers: You might want to avoid drafting Le’Veon Bell next season. He is on pace to become the ninth player to touch the ball 440 times in a season. All but two — Eric Dickerson in 1984 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003 — experienced a significant drop in yards from scrimmage the next season.
4. Los Angeles Rams (9-4; 6.8)
Last week: 43-35 loss to Eagles
Next: at Seahawks, at Titans, vs. 49ers
Week 14 ranking: 3
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 14.2 percent
The Rams missed out on a golden opportunity to either gain ground on or pull away from their NFC competition. The Vikings, Saints and Seahawks all lost. A first-round bye now might be out of reach, but there’s no time to dwell on what could have been. The NFC West title will be on the line when they travel to Seattle on Sunday.
5. New Orleans Saints (9-4; 2.8)
Last week: 20-17 loss to Falcons
Next: vs. Jets, vs. Falcons, at Bucs
Week 14 ranking: 5
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.8 percent
How important is rookie running back Alvin Kamara to the Saints offense? He left last week’s loss to the Falcons in the first quarter because of a concussion, and New Orleans went on to score only 17 points, their fewest in a game this season. Kamara says he’s going to play Sunday against the Jets.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2; 2.0)
Last week: 43-35 win over Rams
Next: at Giants, vs. Raiders, vs. Cowboys
Week 14 ranking: 4
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 14.3 percent
ESPN.com published a story three weeks ago about Carson Wentz’s ascension to MVP candidate. Philadelphia, the story said, was a city on the precipice between fatalism and fervor. “They’re going to break our hearts again this year, aren’t they?” a Wawa cashier asked. Poor Marilyn. Wentz tore his ACL in Sunday’s win, signaling that this season will end like the past 51 — without a Super Bowl trophy.
7. Carolina Panthers (9-4; 7.8)
Last week: 31-24 win over Vikings
Next: vs. Packers, vs. Bucs, at Falcons
Week 14 ranking: 8
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 2.0 percent
Three quarterbacks have rushed for at least 500 yards in six seasons — Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Newton is 15 yards away from joining Vick as the only quarterbacks to rush for at least 600 in four seasons.
8. Atlanta Falcons (8-5; 9.6)
Last week: 20-17 win over Saints
Next: at Bucs, at Saints, vs. Panthers
Week 14 ranking: 9
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.5 percent
The Falcons have won two games this season in which Matt Ryan has thrown three interceptions. Everyone else is 0-24.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4; 9.6)
Last week: 30-24 win over Seahawks
Next: vs. Texans, at 49ers, at Titans
Week 14 ranking: 11
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 8.7 percent
For the second straight game, Blake Bortles threw multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has done that one other time in his four-year career (in December 2015).
10. Seattle Seahawks (8-5; 9.0)
Last week: 30-24 loss to Jaguars
Next: vs. Rams, at Cowboys, vs. Cardinals
Week 14 ranking: 7
Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.8 percent
Russell Wilson has thrown an NFL-record 17 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.
11. Baltimore Ravens (7-6; 9.4)
Last week: 39-38 loss to Steelers
Next: at Browns, vs. Colts, vs. Bengals
Week 14 ranking: 10
Playoff odds: 80.3 percent
Among the league’s top 10 leaders in rushing yards, seven were drafted in the first or second round. One was drafted in the third — Kareem Hunt — and two were drafted in the fifth — Jordan Howard and the Ravens’ Alex Collins. Collins also is one of six players averaging at least 5 yards per carry.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6; 10.6)
Last week: 30-13 win over Washington
Next: at Chiefs, at Jets, vs. Raiders
Week 14 ranking: 12
Playoff odds: 45.7 percent
When the Chargers and Chiefs clash Saturday, expect a clean ballgame. Los Angeles has turned the ball over 11 times (third fewest), and Kansas City has turned it over nine times (fewest). The Chargers’ 35 giveaways last season were the most in the NFL.
13. Kansas City Chiefs (7-6; 11.6)
Last week: 26-15 win over Raiders
Next: vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins, at Broncos
Week 14 ranking: 13
Playoff odds: 66.7 percent
Remember when Hunt rushed for 100 yards in four of his first five games? He averaged 45.9 in his next seven games. He finally crossed the century mark again Sunday, rushing for 116 yards against the Raiders.
14. Dallas Cowboys (7-6; 13.4)
Last week: 30-10 win over Giants
Next: at Raiders, vs. Seahawks, at Eagles
Week 14 ranking: 14
Playoff odds: 10.5 percent
After missing three games because of a hamstring injury, linebacker Sean Lee returned Sunday against the Giants. Think Dallas missed him? He recorded 10 tackles and an interception in the blowout win. In games that Lee starts, the Cowboys are 6-2. In games he doesn’t, they’re 1-4.
15. Green Bay Packers (7-6; 15.4)
Last week: 27-21 win over Browns
Next: at Panthers, vs. Vikings, at Lions
Week 14 ranking: 17
Playoff odds: 15.4 percent
Hey, Aaron Rodgers. Welcome back. Want to get back to the Super Bowl? All you have to do is win six straight games, five of which will be on the road.
16. Detroit Lions (7-6; 15.0)
Last week: 24-21 win over Bucs
Next: vs. Bears, at Bengals, vs. Packers
Week 14 ranking: 15
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
Choose how you’d like to spin the Lions’ win over the Bucs: a.) Matthew Stafford kept Detroit’s playoff hopes alive by engineering his fourth game-winning drive of the season, or b.) The turnover-prone Lions blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to put Stafford in position to lead another game-winning drive.
17. Washington (6-7; 18.2)
Last week: 30-13 loss to Chargers
Next: vs. Cardinals, vs. Broncos, at Giants
Week 14 ranking: 16
Playoff odds: Eliminated
It’s getting ugly in Landover, Md. Los Angeles outgained Washington by 287 yards Sunday. That’s the team’s worst total yards margin in 16 seasons.
18. Oakland Raiders (6-7; 19.0)
Last week: 26-15 loss to Chiefs
Next: vs. Cowboys, at Eagles, at Chargers
Week 14 ranking: 19
Playoff odds: 2.5 percent
Even though Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters missed Sunday’s game because of a suspension, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr struggled to make plays downfield. He failed to complete any of his seven deep passes (passes that travel at least 20 yards).
19. Tennessee Titans (8-5; 19.2)
Last week: 12-7 loss to Cardinals
Next: at 49ers, vs. Rams, vs. Jaguars
Week 14 ranking: 18
Playoff odds: 67.8 percent
After last season, Marcus Mariota appeared to be on the verge of becoming a top tier quarterback. He has regressed significantly, throwing 14 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns. He has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his past four games.
20. Buffalo Bills (7-6; 22.8)
Last week: 13-7 win over Colts
Next: vs. Dolphins, at Patriots, at Dolphins
Week 14 ranking: 21
Playoff odds: 24.8 percent
The Bills and Colts ran the ball a combined 97 times during Sunday’s blizzard in Orchard Park, N.Y. That’s the most by two teams in a game since the Bears and Chiefs ran the ball 100 times on a mild November afternoon in 1981.
21. Arizona Cardinals (6-7; 24.4)
Last week: 12-7 win over Titans
Next: at Washington, vs. Giants, at Seahawks
Week 14 ranking: 23
Playoff odds: 0.0 percent
The Cardinals are 5-1 in one-score games this season. Since Bruce Arians became head coach in 2013, Arizona owns the NFL’s best win percentage (.671) in such games.
22. Houston Texans (4-9; 22.6)
Last week: 26-16 loss to 49ers
Next: at Jaguars, vs. Steelers, at Colts
Week 14 ranking: 22
Playoff odds: Eliminated
The Texans are headed for their first losing season under coach Bill O’Brien. In each of the past three seasons, they finished 9-7.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8; 25.0)
Last week: 33-7 loss to Bears
Next: at Vikings, vs. Lions, at Ravens
Week 14 ranking: 20
Odds of top-five pick: 7.7 percent
A 3-9 Bears team dealt the Bengals their worst home loss since 2008.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9; 21.4)
Last week: 24-21 loss to Lions
Next: vs. Falcons, at Panthers, vs. Saints
Week 14 ranking: 24
Odds of top-five pick: 24.7 percent
The Bucs failed to sack Stafford a single time Sunday. He took advantage, completing 36 of 44 passes, including six straight on the Lions’ game-winning drive. It was the fifth time this season Tampa Bay failed to record a sack, a total matched by only San Francisco.
25. Miami Dolphins (6-7; 24.4)
Last week: 27-20 win over Patriots
Next: at Bills, at Chiefs, vs. Bills
Week 14 ranking: 26
Odds of top-five pick: 0.0 percent
Two weeks ago, I said that when the Dolphins next play the Patriots, we “might as well give New England a 14-0 lead now and skip right to the second quarter.” Oops. Sorry, Miami. No Dolphins jokes from me … for at least a week.
26. Chicago Bears (4-9; 23.0)
Last week: 33-7 win over Bengals
Next: at Lions, vs. Browns, at Vikings
Week 14 ranking: 27
Odds of top-five pick: 11.8 percent
The Bears scored at least 30 points for the first time this season. The Giants and the Browns remain as the only teams who haven’t.
27. Denver Broncos (4-9; 26.0)
Last week: 23-0 win over Jets
Next: at Colts, at Washington, vs. Chiefs
Week 14 ranking: 28
Odds of top-five pick: 49.9 percent
When under pressure, Trevor Siemian has earned a passer rating of 36.3, which ranks 32nd, according to Pro Football Focus. When blitzed, he has earned a rating of 71.4, which ranks 30th. When under pressure, Kirk Cousins has earned a rating more than twice as good as Siemian’s. When blitzed, he has earned an NFL-best rating of 115.5. *insert thinking face emoji here*
28. New York Jets (5-8; 26.6)
Last week: 23-0 loss to Broncos
Next: at Saints, vs. Chargers, at Patriots
Week 14 ranking: 25
Odds of top-five pick: 1.9 percent
With Bryce Petty starting in place of an injured Josh McCown on Sunday, the Jets’ season now amounts to this: You’re only paying attention to them if you play fantasy football and claimed their opponent’s defense.
29. San Francisco 49ers (3-10; 28.8)
Last week: 26-16 win over Texans
Next: vs. Titans, vs. Jacksonville, at Rams
Week 14 ranking: 30
Odds of top-five pick: 84.3 percent
It was going to be fun to watch the 49ers trade their No. 2 overall draft pick again to quarterback-needy team. Alas, they’ve started winning games.
30. New York Giants (2-11; 28.0)
Last week: 30-10 loss to Cowboys
Next: vs. Eagles, at Cardinals, vs. Washington
Week 14 ranking: 29
Odds of top-five pick: 97.3 percent
This Sunday, Eli Manning will extend his iron man streak to two straight starts.
31. Indianapolis Colts (4-9; 30.8)
Last week: 13-7 loss to Bills
Next: vs. Broncos, at Ravens, vs. Texans
Week 14 ranking: 30
Odds of top-five pick: 74.5 percent
If only a blizzard could block our view of the Colts every week.
32. Cleveland Browns (0-13; 31.8)
Last week: 27-21 loss to Packers
Next: vs. Ravens, at Bears, vs. Steelers
Week 14 ranking: 32
Odds of top-five pick: 100.0 percent
Since the Browns returned to Cleveland in 1999, they’ve lost 48 more games than the Bucs. Despite that, they still have a better all-time winning percentage (.513) than Tampa Bay (.387).
Playoff odds are from Football Outsiders. Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.