Primed For Success

By JOE HENDERSON The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 3, 2008

It's really not so strange that the Rays have been one of the best stories in baseball this season, despite the temptation to be slack-jawed in amazement as we look at the top of the standings and see the local team still hanging around.

Although it certainly didn't look like it watching Edwin Jackson struggle Friday night against Boston, the Rays are not a fluke.

They haven't overachieved.

They aren't winning because of abnormally hot starts. Baseball has a way of correcting those over a six-month season, but that won't be necessary with the Rays. If anything, players like Carlos Pena and Akinori Iwamura haven't hit anywhere close to the level it's reasonable to expect. They haven't gotten a regular-season pitch yet from Scott Kazmir.

It hasn't mattered.

You can't say James Shields has pitched better than expected. He might have won his first eight or nine starts last year if the bullpen hadn't imploded every time he pitched. You can raise an eyebrow at Andy Sonnanstine's 4-1 start, but the Rays have liked this guy from the start.

No one expected Eric Hinske to have six homers entering Friday's game against the Red Sox, but Executive Vice President Andrew Friedman has shown a knack for finding diamonds on the scrap heap the last couple of seasons.

The Rays have been generally solid and opportunistic. That explains why they headed to Boston this weekend in such good shape in the standings. After one month last year they were 11-14, already 51/2 games back and headed toward a 96-loss voyage of despair.

And this time?

Maybe they have a little staying power.

Built To Compete

The Rays are sixth this week in ESPN.com's baseball power rankings.

That sounds about right.

We knew the Rays would be better this season - maybe a lot better. But even though the season is barely a month old, I'm starting to think they could hang around in the playoff race for a while. Maybe a long while.

They are built to compete.

They don't have the star power of the Yankees or Red Sox, but when you break them down you see a team where the sum is larger than the individual parts. Last year's bullpen finished with a 6.16 ERA - "historically bad," as Tribune colleague Marc Lancaster likes to refer to it.

This year, the number has improved to 2.52, and it has made all the difference. By the end of April last year, the Rays lost six games where they either led or were tied entering the seventh inning. They aren't losing those games this year.

It's not just the pitchers, though. The Rays are playing championship-caliber defense. Ground balls that shot up the middle in previous years are being cut off now by shortstop Jason Bartlett. Iwamura quickly answered any question about how he would handle the move to second base by providing the perfect complement to Bartlett.

And as much as we marvel at Evan Longoria's bat, his glove at third base has been spectacular. There's no telling how many runs those three players alone have already saved, and that's another reason to believe this team could have a little staying power. Defense comes to play every night.

Saw It Coming

Late last fall, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he wouldn't be surprised if the Rays were playoff contenders this year. He said he could see the plan coming together, that they were so much closer than anyone might think.

That was before the acquisitions of Bartlett, Hinske, Matt Garza, and Troy Percival.

They still have to learn how to stretch success over a full season and how to deal with adversity, but the elements for success are there.

Their speed is well known.

Their starting pitching is solid. Their bullpen has been spectacular.

They can score in a variety of ways.

And they are developing the kind of quiet confidence a contender needs.

That doesn't mean we'll have meaningful September games for the first time here, but it's at least a possibility. A continued run of injuries could change things, but that's true of any team. Look at the Yankees, with A-Rod on the disabled list and Jorge Posada hurting.

So this isn't a look into any crystal ball, complete with forecast of October baseball at the Trop. But this is a pretty good team that has a chance to be much better, and when is the last time we could say that?

Actually, never.