Immigrant Reform Shakes Up 2008 Race

By BILLY HOUSE The Tampa Tribune

Published: Jul 12, 2007

WASHINGTON - Candidates along the 2008 road to the White House are finding it not so easy to do what the U.S. Senate has done - put off debate on immigration reform.

"It is the number one or two question being asked at campaign events," said Elliott Bundy, a spokesman for Republican Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor.

Analysts predict that questions about their immigration views will dog presidential hopefuls throughout the 2008 campaign alongside other top issues such as the war and health care, fueled in part because Congress has failed to act.

The topic already has produced a mix of nuanced and shifting candidate positions, rhetoric and results, particularly among top GOP aspirants.

The reason: Harder-line positions that may help candidates win over core Republican activists and the GOP nomination can later spell doom in a general election, where Hispanics are increasingly key, said Lee Miringoff, of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

"The biggest impact so far has been in the Republican primary" race, where Arizona Sen. John McCain has "really tanked on this issue," said Larry Harris, a public opinion expert with Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

McCain, amid criticism from his early top GOP rivals Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, has been unwavering in his advocacy of the comprehensive immigration reform bill he sponsored with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy and others.

That measure, also co-authored by Florida U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, would have provided noncriminal illegal immigrants a way to gain citizenship if they paid fines and took other steps.

Many within the GOP's active conservative base - amplified by talk radio commentators - derided the bill as "amnesty" for the nation's estimated 12 million undocumented citizens.

The Democratic-controlled Senate, lacking enough bipartisan support even with the backing of President Bush, last month dropped its effort to move ahead with the legislation.

McCain's close association with that bill, combined with his out-front support for an unpopular war, have caused the Arizonan's poll numbers among Republicans to collapse, his fund-raising to suffer, and forced a top-down restructuring of his campaign, Harris said.

Giuliani Says Stance Consistent

Meanwhile, Giuliani and Romney, who make a point of reminding Republican voters of McCain's role with the immigration bill, haven't necessarily been consistent or clear on their stance.

During a GOP presidential debate last month at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Giuliani called the immigration legislation co-sponsored by McCain "a typical Washington mess."

Giuliani also has said: "If we do the kinds of things that some of the [other GOP candidates] are talking about, this country's going to be in greater danger; it is going to be more insecure…"

A decade ago, as New York City's mayor before the Sept. 11 attacks, Giuliani often defended illegal immigrants - and even fought federal laws requiring city employees to turn in illegal immigrants who seek benefits.

Today, Giuliani promises on his campaign Web site: "I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation."

Yet, in a nod to his mayoral positions, Giuliani also has called for allowing "people who are working in this country" to "come forward, sign up for the tamper-proof ID card, get in the database and start paying their way." He also has explained that illegal immigrants should face penalties and be put at the back of the line for citizenship.

"Immigration is a major issue for all the candidates," Miringoff said. "But for Rudy, he also has to be very sensitive to what he has said or not said in the past when he was mayor - and how that does or does not work in a Republican primary setting."

Bundy, Giuliani's campaign spokesman disagrees. "What he is saying now is what he has always said."

Romney Denies Backing Amnesty

Romney similarly has been walking a twisted tightrope on immigration.

At a Florida campaign appearance last weekend in Hollywood, Romney said: "Let's secure the border, install an employment verification system and tell illegal immigrants to get in line with everyone else."

"There should be no special pathway to permanent residency or citizenship for those who have come here illegally," Romney told the 2007 Young Republican National Convention on Saturday.

Romney similarly told a national radio show on May 12 that undocumented immigrants should not "have a special privilege of being able to stay here indefinitely."

He didn't always hold such a view.

The Boston Globe quoted Romney in November 2005 as calling McCain's immigration proposals "reasonable," though he did not go as far during that interview as to endorse them.

Also, in March 2006, The Lowell (Mass.) Sun quoted Romney as saying that while he doesn't believe in "amnesty," illegal immigrants should have a chance to obtain citizenship.

"I don't believe in rounding up 11 million people and forcing them at gunpoint from our country," The Lowell Sun reported Romney as saying.

Romney said he favored registering them, and "those that are here paying taxes and not taking government benefits should begin a process towards application for citizenship, as they would from their home country."

During a debate in May, Romney was asked whether those comments amounted to amnesty. "You're not telling them to go home, sir," the questioner said.

Romney replied, "I am going to tell them to go home, but they start by beginning the process of applying for citizenship or applying for permanent residency."

In a news conference in Lakeland later that month, Romney denied ever supporting a process for earned citizenship for illegal immigrants.

This week, a Romney campaign spokesman, Kristy Campbell, said Romney has made his position clear.

"He believes there should be no special path to citizenship," she said.

Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Woes

Mason-Dixon's Harris says there may be a "short-term" gain for Republican candidates who "go hard after folks [undocumented immigrants] already here."

As many as 40 percent of GOP voters rank immigration as their No. 1 or No. 2 issue and the core, grass-roots members of the party do not want any kind of amnesty for immigration lawbreakers, Mason-Dixon polls show.

Harris added, however, "It's going to hurt the Republican Party in the long run."

New York-based national pollster John Zogby agrees.

Zogby said Republicans face hurdles on immigration issue that their Democratic counterparts don't have.

"They need to be sensitive to the right-wing of their party on these issues, which is so loud and intense," he said.

"But any pivot that they make to the right also threatens gains the party has made among Hispanics - and they simply cannot afford to lose a larger share of Hispanics" in the general election, said Zogby.

The numbers explain why. Hispanics were about 5 percent of 95 million voters nationally in 1996 and 8.5 percent of 122 million voters in 2004. Their numbers could reach 130 million in the 2008 elections.

Although Bush took 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in winning re-election in 2004, the GOP got just 28 percent of these voters last fall, when they lost control of the U.S. Senate and House.

Zogby says a continued decline in this share of a rapidly growing slice of the electorate could have devastating results for the GOP and its 2008 presidential nominee.

A Zogby poll of Hispanic voters done after last fall's elections showed that only 29 percent think Republicans are better equipped to handle immigration.

"Everybody wants some type of immigration reform," Zogby said.

"But when you start talking about tightening the borders and cracking down on illegal immigrants, many Hispanics do not make much of a distinction between anti-illegal immigration and anti-immigrant," Zogby said.

Marist's Miringoff thinks Republicans may have to act tough toward illegal immigrants during the primary, but soften their position during the general election to win Hispanic votes.

"The thing is, these are issues of principle," he said.

"Candidates are not going to do well with difficult issues if they later try to adjust their positions."

Reporter William March contributed to this story. Reporter Billy House can be reached at 202 662-7673 or at bhouse @tampatrib.com.

WHERE THEY STAND

Here's where the major candidates stand on immigration:

REPUBLICANS

RUDOLPH GIULIANI (opposed the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•May 15 - "We need a technological fence; … we need a way that people who are working in this country can come forward, sign up for the tamper-proof ID card, get in the database and start paying their way."

•A decade ago as New York's mayor, he fought federal laws requiring city employees to turn in illegal immigrants who seek benefits such as police protection and health care.

MITT ROMNEY (opposed the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•May 15 - "I am going to tell them [illegal immigrants] to go home, but they start by beginning the process of applying for citizenship. They're not going to be barred from doing that, but they do not get any advantage by having come here illegally."

•Last year, he was quoted by a Massachusetts newspaper as saying he does not believe in "rounding up 11 million people and forcing them at gunpoint from our country."

SEN. JOHN McCAIN (co-sponsored the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•June 28 - "I am disappointed that the Senate was unable to conclude its debate on comprehensive immigration reform. However, the American people will not settle for the status quo: de facto amnesty and broken borders."

•He has denied that the bill he helped to write would provide amnesty for undocumented immigrants, and he describes Congress' inability to act on immigration legislation as an abrogation of its responsibilities to the American people.

FRED THOMPSON* (opposed the stalled Senate Immigration bill)

•May 18 - "We should scrap this 'comprehensive' immigration bill and the whole debate until the government can show the American people that we have secured the borders. … That would give proponents of the bill a chance to explain why putting illegals in a more favorable position than those who play by the rules is not really amnesty."

DEMOCRATS

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (voted to advance the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•April 26 - During a debate, she said that "after 9/11, we've got to know who's in this country. And then [give] them a chance to pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English and stand in line to be eligible for legal status in this country."

•She has described the nation's immigration system as "broken" and said efforts to change it must be multifaceted and comprehensive, including strengthening the borders.

JOHN EDWARDS (did not like aspects of the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•March 10 - "I think [immigrants] ought to be allowed to earn American citizenship. Now I use the word 'earn' because I mean earn. I think if they came here illegally, then they ought to have to pay a fine. … I think they ought to have to learn to speak English ."

•Last month, he was reported by The Des Moines Register to have told an audience in Sioux City, Iowa, that he did not think the Senate bill created a practical path to citizenship for immigrants. He said he opposed creating "a first-class group of citizens and a second-class group of laborers. This is what results from the current bill."

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (voted to advance the stalled Senate immigration bill)

•March 24 - It's "absolutely vital that we bring those families out of the shadows and that we give them the opportunity to travel a pathway to citizenship. It's not automatic citizenship. It's not amnesty."

•He tried to amend the Senate bill, including through a measure he co-sponsored that would have improved the employment verification system to protect legal immigrants mistakenly identified as being not legally eligible to work.

* Not a declared candidate

Billy House