End Appears Near For 2-Year Drought

By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 8, 2008

TAMPA - The end may be in sight for a two-year drought that forced home watering restrictions and left much of the state vulnerable to wildfires.

"It looks like this drought is in the process of going away," state meteorologist Ben Nelson said.

By any measure, things are looking wetter:

•A year ago, 99.6 percent of Florida was in some level of drought compared with 69 percent today.

•Five months into 2008, the number of wildfires and acres burned are a fraction of last year's figures.

•Groundwater levels in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties are more than two feet above where they were May 1, 2007 - 8 on a scale of 1 to 100 then, up to 84 now.

A wet start to 2008 helped. Rain at Tampa International Airport the first four months of the year was more than 3.5 inches above normal, a whole extra month's rain.

"We were very fortunate this winter with fronts," Nelson said. "We'll take all the help we can get from Mother Nature."

And perhaps four to six weeks away are summer thunderstorms.

"The rainy season is right in front of us," Nelson said.

The agency that regulates water use in West Central Florida is more cautious.

Things are improving, but the drought isn't finished, said Robyn Felix, spokeswoman with the Southwest Florida Water Management District.

Rainfall in the 16 counties that make up the water district is 16 inches below normal for the past two years, Felix said.

"If we get above-average rainfall in the summer, with the head start we've got now, we might get out of the drought," she said.

Also, water levels in lakes have not rebounded. Lakes recover from drought more slowly than aquifers or rivers. Lakes lose water from seepage underground - until groundwater levels rise - and from evaporation.

Improving conditions won't mean an immediate end to restrictions limiting lawn watering to once a week. The restrictions are in place until June 30.

"There's been no discussion of lifting the restrictions," Felix said.

There is no specific rainfall amount that would trigger a recommendation to ease the restrictions, she said. The district staff would also look at rain, river flow, aquifer levels and lakes.

The district governing board will talk about the restrictions at its May 27 meeting and make any decision at its June 24 meeting.

Movement away from drought conditions comes as the danger of large wildfires peaks in May.

Last May, an index of wildfire danger - with zero as saturated conditions and 800 as desertlike - stood at 524 across the state. Now it is 389.

May 2007 was an especially brutal month for wildfires, with 792 fires blackening more than 147,000 acres.

During that month, nearly 10 times as many acres burned as have burned so far this year.

Still, forestry officials aren't ready to celebrate.

"We're anticipating May will not be as bad as last year, but it will still be active," said Matt Weinell, fire resources manager with the state Division of Forestry.

The fire danger index creeps up 10 to 15 points a day, he said. And thunderstorms that begin occurring in late May cause fires in areas not soaked by summer rains.

It usually is July before storms are widespread enough to ease the fire danger.

"We've still got all of May and June to get through," Weinell said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.