Tax Vote To Add Intrigue To Primary

By CATHERINE DOLINSKI The Tampa Tribune

Published: Jun 22, 2007

TALLAHASSEE - Democratic and Republican lawmakers may disagree on whether to "supersize" Florida's homestead tax exemption, but they voted together last week to add the question to the Jan. 29 presidential primary ballot.

Florida's politicos agree that the combination should boost voter turnout from both of the major parties. But who ultimately will benefit from the pairing remains the subject of wide speculation.

On Thursday, Gov. Charlie Crist signed the bill that places the proposed constitutional amendment on the Jan. 29 ballot. If approved by 60 percent of voters, the amendment would gradually phase out the state's "Save Our Homes " property-tax cap, replacing it over time with a larger homestead exemption. The measure could lower taxes by up to $16 billion.

The Jan. 29 primary had little to do with Democratic support for placing the proposed amendment on the same ballot, House Minority Leader Dan Gelber said. Democrats think the proposed amendment will fail, he said, and its defeat in January would make way for either the Legislature or the state's Taxation and Budget Reform Commission to propose more palatable tax relief on November's ballot.

"Rather than try to play political games, let's just get that vote over as soon as possible," Gelber said.

That's fine by Sen. Mike Fasano, one of many who see pairing the proposed amendment with the primary as a win-win for Republicans. National candidates could convey their fiscal conservatism by embracing the amendment, which could help it pass, he said.

"Wouldn't it behoove any Republican presidential contender to come to Florida and embrace this?" said Fasano, R-New Port Richey. "If I were a highly paid Republican consultant, that's what I'd be encouraging my candidate to look at."

Pushing the specific tax cut proposed on the ballot, however, may not be worth risking the ire of local leaders who may oppose the measure, said David Johnson, former executive director of the state Republican Party.

Although Republican candidates may embrace the tax-cut notion in general, "I believe they largely will stay out of the weeds of the details, call it a Florida state issue and say, 'Let the good people of Florida decide on their own,'" Johnson said.

The issue could turn thorny for Rudy Giuliani, whom voters have identified as a strong supporter of public safety and security. That perception could make it hard for him to stand against Florida firefighter and police unions fighting the tax cut, said Daniel Smith, political science professor at the University of Florida.

Attorney General Bill McCollum, state campaign manager for Giuliani, said he has not yet advised the candidate on the issue and cannot say what he will recommend or how Giuliani will react to the issue. McCollum said he would not be surprised if Giuliani runs into questions about it as he travels the state.

Republicans may have miscalculated by placing the question before voters on Florida's new early presidential primary date, said Derek Newton, a Democratic strategist in Miami. At best, he said, it's a "wild card."

"The proponents of the amendment would have been far safer putting out this as a stand-alone amendment in August or September," Newton said. "This being with the presidential primary means that - and especially with the primary being accelerated - you are ramping up turnout of both parties without ramping up the turnout of independents and no-party affiliations. No one can tell what that means for this amendment."

Even the experts are still trying to figure out the short- and long-term effects of the proposed amendment, Newton said.

"There is a learning curve here," he said. "Who knows what the public sentiment will be come next January? That's why I think it's a strategic error. If it were six or eight weeks from now, Republicans could have rolled out of the session and gone home, talked about how important the amendment is, and left little time for cities and counties to analyze how it's going to affect them."

Smith said the two major business proponents of the amendment, Realtors and home builders, are among the most aggressive political campaigners in the state. Democrats, he said, may have underestimated the political might of those groups, which will have months to campaign for the amendment.

Realtors, investors, managers and others in the real-estate field contributed more than $5.4 million during the 2006 election cycle, in addition to the nearly $1.4 million from Realtors' political action committees.

Defeating the amendment will hinge on the organization and political will of local firefighters, teachers and governments whose bottom lines and livelihoods could be threatened by the tax cut, Senate Minority Leader Steve Geller said. Already, union representatives for Florida's teachers and government employees are looking to their parent organizations for support, he said.

Having the proposed tax cut on the ballot could give Democratic presidential candidates the chance to fire up support early from the unions, whose political activity has been lackluster in recent years, said Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida.

The unions may disappoint Democrats, however, by not mounting the anticipated blitzkrieg against the amendment, said Stephen MacNamara, a communications professor at Florida State University.

"It depends; the first thing they're going to do is take the ballot language and test it in a poll," said MacNamara, who has consulted for Republicans and worked on ballot initiative campaigns. "It's costly to move numbers nowadays. If there's way too much support, there's not a lot of sense in pouring a lot of effort into it."

Reporter Catherine Dolinski can be reached at (850) 222-8382 or cdolinski@tampatrib.com.