Harris Losing Ground, Poll Says

By WILLIAM MARCH The Tampa Tribune

Published: Jul 26, 2006

TAMPA - U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris appears to have slipped further in her Senate race against Bill Nelson, according to a new poll.

In the primary for the Republican nomination, Harris still has a strong lead, but her three lesser-known Republican opponents have gained ground.

Nelson, the incumbent Democratic senator, led Harris 57 percent to 29 percent with 14 percent undecided in the poll, done for The Tampa Tribune and other news agencies by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. In March, Nelson led Harris 51 percent to 35 percent in the same poll.

In the primary contest, Harris led the field of four with 36 percent, followed by Will McBride, 11 percent; LeRoy Collins Jr., 8 percent; and Peter Monroe, 2 percent, with 43 percent undecided.

The poll consisted of telephone interviews July 19-21 with 625 likely voters. The error margin was 4 percentage points.

The question regarding the primary was asked of 400 Republicans and had a 5-point error margin.

Asked whether he thinks the poll results indicate Harris could be in danger of losing the nomination battle, pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon said: "I don't know. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet against her in the primary."

"To me it's a real sign that the enthusiasm for her among the rank and file is gone," Coker said.

Since last year, Harris, of Longboat Key, has also sustained public relations damage from high staff turnover, erratic public statements and links to a congressional bribery scandal.

In a brief statement, her campaign said the poll does not matter.

"The only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day," campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Marks said. "The congresswoman has a long record of gracefully rebounding despite negative predictions and questionable polls."

Harris told a friendly, hometown crowd at a Republican women's breakfast in Sarasota on Saturday that she has a history of winning as an underdog.

"We start 30 points down, behind in fundraising, the media's against us and they say we don't have a chance," she said. "Remember Jim Boczar?"

Harris beat Boczar, a freshman Democratic incumbent, to win a state Senate seat from Sarasota in 1994.

"Polls mean nothing," Harris added.

Another new poll out Tuesday, by the Atlanta-based Strategic Vision political consulting firm, gave Nelson a slightly larger margin, 60 percent to 22 percent.

In the primary contest, the Strategic Vision poll showed Harris with 45 percent to 22 percent for McBride, 9 percent for Collins, 7 percent for Monroe and 17 percent undecided.

Nelson, though he has compiled a campaign war chest greater than $10 million, has been doing comparatively little public campaigning.

"We expect the race to tighten, and we're going to be prepared for whatever the other side throws at us," Nelson campaign manager Chad Clanton said.

Two of Harris' opponents in the primary said the poll means they are gaining ground.

Collins, a Tampa resident and son of the late Gov. LeRoy Collins, this week announced endorsements from two big-name Republicans, former Comptroller Bob Milligan and former Attorney General Jim Smith.

Collins spokeswoman Stephanie Steele said his performance in polls will get better as "it becomes clear who Republican leaders support" in the race.

In a news release, McBride said the poll numbers mean the primary race "is now down to Will McBride and Katherine Harris."

Monroe said polls "are absolutely meaningless at this point" with regard to Harris' challengers, who have little name recognition.

Monroe said he is in the process of sending mailers to more than 1 million Republican voters in hopes of achievingthat recognition.

Harris has also seen an increase in the number of voters who view her unfavorably, and a decrease in support within her own party.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, 43 percent of the respondents said they have an unfavorable opinion of her, compared with 31 percent in March.

While 67 percent of Republicans said in March that they supported Harris versus Nelson, 54 percent said so in the new poll.