Every Man For Himself

By GRETCHEN PARKER gparker@tampatrib.com

Published: May 21, 2006

If Tampa Bay takes a catastrophic storm "up the gut," as emergency officials describe it, it will be a war with weather the area has never seen. A 28-foot storm surge stretched six miles inland, 500 mobile home parks flattened, roads closed, stragglers stranded, hospitals flooded.

When the sun comes out, people are going to expect help. They will expect government to give it to them.

Emergency planners say they will do all they can. Their calendars are full of meetings with churches and neighborhood groups, where they try to teach the ABCs of preparing for a hurricane. They're lining up buses to evacuate the sick and needy. They're plugging in generators at shelters for the old and infirm. They're mapping out sites for handing out supplies, and they're recruiting volunteers to run them.

They want to help us - all of us. But they can't.

When an evacuation is ordered, some people - including the sick, elderly and non-English speakers - will be left behind. People will be forced to go without food or water for at least three days. People will suffer injuries and will have to wait for treatment.

Each storm shows us that chaos is imminent.

If government doesn't do its best, blame will be assigned. But officials warn us now, as the storm season starts fresh, that their best efforts may fall short in many areas. Their priority will be saving those who are helpless.

Those of us who can stand on our own, they say, should be ready to do so.

It seems at odds that when residents need government most, it might not be there for them. But it's clear that officials and resources will not be able to meet every demand.

Especially in the case of a Category 5 storm, the worst possible weather scenario, Hillsborough County - even with help from state and federal agencies - offers no guarantees.

Emergency leaders urge us to take care of ourselves if we can. Government has its plans; you should have yours.

BEFORE

EVACUATION

(Those who are elderly and sick)

GOVERNMENT: Emergency planners are working with nursing homes and hospitals to coordinate the emptying of 2,700 beds, although they don't test or enforce the evacuation plans. Planners will arrange for wheelchair-accessible vans and ambulances to pick up sick residents who preregister and have special needs such as oxygen and dialysis.

YOU: About 3,300 people are on the special needs roster, which is overseen by the Hillsborough County health department. At least a thousand names are missing. Planners depend on you and your home health agency to register patients. The process takes two to three weeks. The easiest way to start the process of getting on the list is to call the Citizen Action Center at (813) 272-5900. If you wait until the last minute, emergency officials likely won't be able to add your name to the list in time.

(Those who don't have vehicles)

GOVERNMENT: Planners will dispatch HARTline and school bus drivers (who volunteer) to run two dozen designated evacuation routes and pick up those who gather at bus stops or along the routes. They plan to send buses to public housing projects. Organizers estimate they'll have about 200 drivers. All of this depends on drivers showing up. The county's 525 mobile home parks are ordered to evacuate in any level of storm threat; officials say there is no way to run buses by all of them. Some are in densely developed areas in the eastern part of the county, such as Sydney and Dover, that don't yet have routes.

YOU: You're the ones most likely to be left behind. The 2000 census estimated 14,000 people live in evacuation zones and have no vehicle, but government has no way to track you. It's up to you to get out on your own or catch a bus. You'll have to find the locations of the hurricane bus stops, which aren't posted. (HARTline plans to erect signs on its half of the routes by late June; emergency planners in charge of the remaining dozen routes say they are looking for $20,000 for signs.) You can flag down a bus if you know where the routes are. If you live in public housing and don't have a car, don't assume officials know you need a ride. They estimate there are 1,800 of you without cars in the six housing complexes that lie in evacuation zones. But they don't have a list of names. Buses should stop at your building, but you have to find out when.

(The able and mobile)

GOVERNMENT: Bridges will close early, to keep the approaches from flooding and trapping motorists. The state Department of Transportation and Florida Highway Patrol could use a complex, largely untested plan to convert Interstate 4 into a one-way, eastbound thoroughfare. It would increase flow by a third but would require a hundred law enforcement officers. Use the back roads - routes the locals know that are unfamiliar to neighbors coming from other counties.

YOU: If you wait until evacuation orders are mandatory, you'll likely have only about 24 hours before the storm hits. By that time, you'll be joining 1.3 million other people using the same roads to exit Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee and Pasco counties. The gas supply might be limited, as everyone scrambles to top off their tanks and fill storage containers for their generators. Plans for mobile fuel trucks to help stranded drivers are tenuous. Officials urge you not to flee unless you live in an evacuation zone or a mobile home.

INFORMATION

GOVERNMENT: After activating the Emergency Operations Center, officials will update reporters on where the storm is heading, whether evacuation is working and how fast shelters are filling. HTV cable channel 22, the county's television station, will broadcast updates. Health department workers will try to call every patient on the special-needs list to urge them to evacuate. Police and sheriff's deputies will try to make rounds of mobile home parks, migrant camps and other areas they suspect have high concentrations of people without vehicles.

YOU: Plugging your address into the county's Web site (www-gis.hillsboroughcounty.org/heat/evaczone.cfm) can tell you whether you live in an evacuation zone and where the closest activated shelter is. The Citizen Action Center can tell you if you're in a zone. It's open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. regularly; 36 hours before landfall, the center will open round-the-clock. The center, with the help of two dozen operators, can handle 750 calls an hour - a fraction of the 7,000 calls per hour that may jam switchboards. It's best to look ahead of time at the maps of evacuation zones, which have been redrawn this year. Also, dialing 511 for the county's information line could give you traffic information although it will not be up-to-the-minute.

DURING

SHELTERING

(Those who are elderly and sick)

GOVERNMENT: The county is preparing three shelters, with 3,000 spaces, for special-needs patients. The list includes about 3,300 people and lacks at least a thousand others who qualify. More people could be crammed into these shelters, but officials count on many patients finding other shelter at the last minute. One of the shelters, the University of South Florida Sun Dome, doesn't have enough generator power to run air conditioning. That is a $1.15 million expense that the county hasn't been able to foot.

YOU: Those who register in advance get priority. If you need a personal nurse, it's up to you to arrange for one. There are only 40 nurses to staff all three shelters. As with evacuation, the emergency shelter plans of nursing homes and hospitals are unenforced and largely untested. It is illegal for nursing homes to dump their patients at public shelters, although shelter managers try not to turn anyone away.

(The able and mobile)

GOVERNMENT: The American Red Cross will open 51 shelters for 75,000 evacuees. More spaces can be created, but not nearly enough to accommodate the 400,000 people who live either in evacuation zones or mobile homes. Government counts on most finding shelter elsewhere. Only one shelter allows pets. There are about 20 reserve shelters, not hurricane hardened, that could be opened for the overflow. Beyond that, refuges such as shopping malls and movie theaters could be opened to stranded drivers and other stragglers.

YOU: Emergency planners urge evacuees to stay with friends instead of at a public shelter, where they'll likely be uncomfortable. They also urge them to find shelter as close to home as possible. They remind us of 2004, when evacuees fled to Central Florida and still faced high winds and hotels without power.

………….AFTER……………..

SUPPLIES

GOVERNMENT: Planners have designated 16 sites, evenly spaced, to distribute meals, water and ice to motorists who wait in line. Each has an alternate location, and all 32 sites could be opened if needed. The largest of the sites is designed to serve 20,000 people a day and would require 80 volunteers; the smallest would serve 5,000 and require 20 volunteers, all coordinated by the United Way. These plans depend on volunteers showing up. The idea is that when state emergency crews and the National Guard or FEMA are dispatched, they will know where to go and not have to wait for arrangements to be made. Officials are encouraging neighborhood and church groups to pick up supplies and help distribute on their own.

YOU: With power out, grocery stores, gas stations and convenience stores will close. You will have to wait at least 24 hours for the county's distribution sites to open. In a Category 4 or 5 storm, you may have to wait up to five days. Be stocked and ready. If you don't have a way to get to the sites, don't expect government to deliver supplies. Planners will try to get food to public housing developments and churches that could help distribute, but those plans are tenuous.

MOVEMENT

GOVERNMENT: County officials promise that if they took you to a shelter, they'll find a way to get you home by bus or ambulance. But first, crews will begin the gargantuan task of clearing debris - smashed homes, utility poles and live power lines. Planners estimate that with just a Category 3 storm, crews would have to move 16 million cubic yards of debris, enough to fill a professional football stadium to the top 15 times.

YOU: You may have to wait several days to move, either out of your shelter or out of your neighborhood. Prepare for your toilet and faucets to run dry, because no power means no electricity to run your neighborhood pump or lift station. Unless they have generators, service stations have no way to pump gas. The county has no plans to seize private gas stations and power them with its generators, although officials say keeping the Port of Tampa's fuel supply flowing is a priority.

Sources: Hillsborough County Emergency Operations Center, Hillsborough County health department, Hillsborough County School Board transportation department, Citizen Action Center, Tampa Housing Authority, HARTline, United Way of Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council