Are You Set For A Hurricane?

By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune

Published: Jul 31, 2007

TAMPA - If any state should be wise in the ways of hurricanes by now it's Florida.

But it seems Floridians aren't much different from people in seven other southern states.

Roughly one in three don't know if they live in an evacuation zone and wouldn't evacuate if ordered. A third of those who would evacuate expect to drive 200 miles or more to escape the storm, much farther than necessary to reach safety.

In addition, more than one in five would run out of water in two days and underestimate how much water each family member needs each day.

The results come from a Harvard University School of Public Health survey released last week that questioned 5,000 residents in eight states who live within 20 miles of a coast. Responses from the 1,000 people surveyed in Florida pretty much mirror the overall survey.

"It's discouraging that you don't see a bigger difference between Florida's numbers and the other states," said Jay Baker, Florida State University Department of Geography professor who's conducted numerous similar surveys and was not connected to the Harvard survey.

Florida residents are awash with information about hurricanes every year from the state, regional planning councils, local governments, the media and private businesses, Baker said, probably more than people in any other state.

Regardless of the flood of information, 33 percent of the Florida residents said they would not evacuate in the face of a major hurricane even if government officials told them to. It's slightly higher than the 31 percent in the entire survey.

"We're finding the likely evacuation rates for Florida, which has a lot of hurricane experience compared to other states which have little, aren't that different," said Tami Buhr, assistant director of Harvard's opinion research program.

The 31 percent in all eight states who said they wouldn't evacuate in 2007 is a large jump from the 23 percent who told the same Harvard survey in 2006 they would not leave, Buhr said.

The significant increase in those who would ride out a large hurricane at home could be a result of last year's tranquil season, or because the first survey was taken after the brutal 2005 season and people were more leery of storms.

Future surveys may find 31 percent is closer to the norm, Buhr said.

Drinking Water Is A Factor

One result that will affect relief efforts is the 23 percent of the people who have only two days' supply of water on hand. Again, Florida's response was close to the overall survey with 21 percent saying they had enough water for only two days.

"That means nearly a quarter of the population would be out of water in three days," Buhr said.

With roughly 2 million people in the Tampa Bay area, 40,000 or more would need water the third day after the storm.

One of the more troubling findings in Florida was 33 percent of the Floridians did not know they live in an area that could be told to evacuate, Baker said.

"In an area of the country that has received more information about evacuation zones, there's still a misconception about evacuation zones. Florida's done so much more to educate people you'd think they would be more aware," Baker said.

That leaves emergency officials wondering how to reach more people.

"I'm not sure honestly what more we could do," said Holley Wade, spokeswoman for Hillsborough County Emergency Management.

Confidence Level Is High

Local newspapers print annual hurricane guides, television stations broadcast hurricane specials, communities host hurricane expos and Hillsborough's emergency staff give more than 170 speeches to clubs and organizations each year, she said.

Buhr said the heavy influx of newcomers in all southern states who have no experience with hurricanes could be one reason so many people won't evacuate, don't know about evacuation zones or don't have enough water.

"Granted, there may be more that we could do for people who just moved here and we're working on that," Wade said.

Despite other results that show Floridians aren't much different from others in the south, they appear more confident.

At 83 percent, more Florida residents said they are prepared for a hurricane than the 79 percent response in the total survey.

Contact Neil Johnson at (352) 544-5214 or njohnson@ tampatrib.com.