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Wednesday, Jun 20, 2018
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Poll by conservative group shows Scott with slim lead

conservative political action

Crist with a narrow lead

McLaughlin & Associates,

McLaughlin said he wouldn’t call Scott’s lead “statistically significant.”

“It’s a close race – he’s up by a couple,” McLaughlin said. “He’s got the advantage among independents and ticket-splitters.”

McLaughlin said his polling firm uses a tighter screen than many pollsters to make sure the poll includes only likely voters, questioning respondents about their registration and whether they firmly intend to vote.

That could produce a more conservative sample, but Republicans say a more accurate sample, for a non-presidential election year in which voter turnout may be low.

McLaughlin said in 2012, when Obama won Florida, voter turnout was 40.3 Democrat and 38.7 percent Republican. But in the last off-year, 2010, it was 45.5-38.4 percent Republican to Democratic -- “about as good as it could ever be in Florida for Republicans,” he said.

He forecast the 2014 outcome will be somewhere between those two extremes.

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