tbo: Tampa Bay Online.
Tuesday, Jul 17, 2018
  • Home
News Roundup

NFL Power Rankings, Week 15: Carson Wentz's injury drops Eagles out of top five

What follows below is a ranking of all 32 NFL teams. To build this list, we consulted five objective measures of team strength: Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, ESPN’s Football Power Index, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings and statistician Jeff Sagarin’s NFL ratings. We then used a composite of those measures as a guidepost.

We’ve included Super Bowl odds for the top 10 teams and top-five draft pick odds for the bottom 10 teams.

Previous rankings: Week 10, Week 11, Week 12, Week 13, Week 14

1. New England Patriots (record: 10-3; composite ranking: 2.8)

Last week: 27-20 loss to Dolphins

Next: at Steelers, vs. Bills, vs. Jets

Week 14 ranking: 1

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 13.7 percent

Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins snapped an eight-game streak in which the Patriots had not allowed more than 17 points in a game. Up next: the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have won five of the seven games they’ve played at Heinz Field.

2. Minnesota Vikings (10-3; 5.0)

Last week: 31-24 loss to Panthers

Next: vs. Bengals, at Packers, vs. Bears

Week 14 ranking: 2

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.6 percent

Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen has 13 sacks this season. The entire Bucs defense has 17.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2; 5.2)

Last week: 39-38 win over Ravens

Next: vs. Patriots, at Texans, vs. Browns

Week 14 ranking: 6

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 17.4 percent

Fantasy footballers: You might want to avoid drafting Le’Veon Bell next season. He is on pace to become the ninth player to touch the ball 440 times in a season. All but two — Eric Dickerson in 1984 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003 — experienced a significant drop in yards from scrimmage the next season.

4. Los Angeles Rams (9-4; 6.8)

Last week: 43-35 loss to Eagles

Next: at Seahawks, at Titans, vs. 49ers

Week 14 ranking: 3

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 14.2 percent

The Rams missed out on a golden opportunity to either gain ground on or pull away from their NFC competition. The Vikings, Saints and Seahawks all lost. A first-round bye now might be out of reach, but there’s no time to dwell on what could have been. The NFC West title will be on the line when they travel to Seattle on Sunday.

5. New Orleans Saints (9-4; 2.8)

Last week: 20-17 loss to Falcons

Next: vs. Jets, vs. Falcons, at Bucs

Week 14 ranking: 5

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 10.8 percent

How important is rookie running back Alvin Kamara to the Saints offense? He left last week’s loss to the Falcons in the first quarter because of a concussion, and New Orleans went on to score only 17 points, their fewest in a game this season. Kamara says he’s going to play Sunday against the Jets.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2; 2.0)

Last week: 43-35 win over Rams

Next: at Giants, vs. Raiders, vs. Cowboys

Week 14 ranking: 4

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 14.3 percent

ESPN.com published a story three weeks ago about Carson Wentz’s ascension to MVP candidate. Philadelphia, the story said, was a city on the precipice between fatalism and fervor. “They’re going to break our hearts again this year, aren’t they?” a Wawa cashier asked. Poor Marilyn. Wentz tore his ACL in Sunday’s win, signaling that this season will end like the past 51 — without a Super Bowl trophy.

7. Carolina Panthers (9-4; 7.8)

Last week: 31-24 win over Vikings

Next: vs. Packers, vs. Bucs, at Falcons

Week 14 ranking: 8

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 2.0 percent

Three quarterbacks have rushed for at least 500 yards in six seasons — Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Newton is 15 yards away from joining Vick as the only quarterbacks to rush for at least 600 in four seasons.

8. Atlanta Falcons (8-5; 9.6)

Last week: 20-17 win over Saints

Next: at Bucs, at Saints, vs. Panthers

Week 14 ranking: 9

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.5 percent

The Falcons have won two games this season in which Matt Ryan has thrown three interceptions. Everyone else is 0-24.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4; 9.6)

Last week: 30-24 win over Seahawks

Next: vs. Texans, at 49ers, at Titans

Week 14 ranking: 11

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 8.7 percent

For the second straight game, Blake Bortles threw multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has done that one other time in his four-year career (in December 2015).

10. Seattle Seahawks (8-5; 9.0)

Last week: 30-24 loss to Jaguars

Next: vs. Rams, at Cowboys, vs. Cardinals

Week 14 ranking: 7

Odds of winning Super Bowl: 0.8 percent

Russell Wilson has thrown an NFL-record 17 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

11. Baltimore Ravens (7-6; 9.4)

Last week: 39-38 loss to Steelers

Next: at Browns, vs. Colts, vs. Bengals

Week 14 ranking: 10

Playoff odds: 80.3 percent

Among the league’s top 10 leaders in rushing yards, seven were drafted in the first or second round. One was drafted in the third — Kareem Hunt — and two were drafted in the fifth — Jordan Howard and the Ravens’ Alex Collins. Collins also is one of six players averaging at least 5 yards per carry.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6; 10.6)

Last week: 30-13 win over Washington

Next: at Chiefs, at Jets, vs. Raiders

Week 14 ranking: 12

Playoff odds: 45.7 percent

When the Chargers and Chiefs clash Saturday, expect a clean ballgame. Los Angeles has turned the ball over 11 times (third fewest), and Kansas City has turned it over nine times (fewest). The Chargers’ 35 giveaways last season were the most in the NFL.

13. Kansas City Chiefs (7-6; 11.6)

Last week: 26-15 win over Raiders

Next: vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins, at Broncos

Week 14 ranking: 13

Playoff odds: 66.7 percent

Remember when Hunt rushed for 100 yards in four of his first five games? He averaged 45.9 in his next seven games. He finally crossed the century mark again Sunday, rushing for 116 yards against the Raiders.

14. Dallas Cowboys (7-6; 13.4)

Last week: 30-10 win over Giants

Next: at Raiders, vs. Seahawks, at Eagles

Week 14 ranking: 14

Playoff odds: 10.5 percent

After missing three games because of a hamstring injury, linebacker Sean Lee returned Sunday against the Giants. Think Dallas missed him? He recorded 10 tackles and an interception in the blowout win. In games that Lee starts, the Cowboys are 6-2. In games he doesn’t, they’re 1-4.

15. Green Bay Packers (7-6; 15.4)

Last week: 27-21 win over Browns

Next: at Panthers, vs. Vikings, at Lions

Week 14 ranking: 17

Playoff odds: 15.4 percent

Hey, Aaron Rodgers. Welcome back. Want to get back to the Super Bowl? All you have to do is win six straight games, five of which will be on the road.

16. Detroit Lions (7-6; 15.0)

Last week: 24-21 win over Bucs

Next: vs. Bears, at Bengals, vs. Packers

Week 14 ranking: 15

Playoff odds: 12.2 percent

Choose how you’d like to spin the Lions’ win over the Bucs: a.) Matthew Stafford kept Detroit’s playoff hopes alive by engineering his fourth game-winning drive of the season, or b.) The turnover-prone Lions blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to put Stafford in position to lead another game-winning drive.

17. Washington (6-7; 18.2)

Last week: 30-13 loss to Chargers

Next: vs. Cardinals, vs. Broncos, at Giants

Week 14 ranking: 16

Playoff odds: Eliminated

It’s getting ugly in Landover, Md. Los Angeles outgained Washington by 287 yards Sunday. That’s the team’s worst total yards margin in 16 seasons.

18. Oakland Raiders (6-7; 19.0)

Last week: 26-15 loss to Chiefs

Next: vs. Cowboys, at Eagles, at Chargers

Week 14 ranking: 19

Playoff odds: 2.5 percent

Even though Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters missed Sunday’s game because of a suspension, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr struggled to make plays downfield. He failed to complete any of his seven deep passes (passes that travel at least 20 yards).

19. Tennessee Titans (8-5; 19.2)

Last week: 12-7 loss to Cardinals

Next: at 49ers, vs. Rams, vs. Jaguars

Week 14 ranking: 18

Playoff odds: 67.8 percent

After last season, Marcus Mariota appeared to be on the verge of becoming a top tier quarterback. He has regressed significantly, throwing 14 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns. He has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his past four games.

20. Buffalo Bills (7-6; 22.8)

Last week: 13-7 win over Colts

Next: vs. Dolphins, at Patriots, at Dolphins

Week 14 ranking: 21

Playoff odds: 24.8 percent

The Bills and Colts ran the ball a combined 97 times during Sunday’s blizzard in Orchard Park, N.Y. That’s the most by two teams in a game since the Bears and Chiefs ran the ball 100 times on a mild November afternoon in 1981.

21. Arizona Cardinals (6-7; 24.4)

Last week: 12-7 win over Titans

Next: at Washington, vs. Giants, at Seahawks

Week 14 ranking: 23

Playoff odds: 0.0 percent

The Cardinals are 5-1 in one-score games this season. Since Bruce Arians became head coach in 2013, Arizona owns the NFL’s best win percentage (.671) in such games.

22. Houston Texans (4-9; 22.6)

Last week: 26-16 loss to 49ers

Next: at Jaguars, vs. Steelers, at Colts

Week 14 ranking: 22

Playoff odds: Eliminated

The Texans are headed for their first losing season under coach Bill O’Brien. In each of the past three seasons, they finished 9-7.

23. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8; 25.0)

Last week: 33-7 loss to Bears

Next: at Vikings, vs. Lions, at Ravens

Week 14 ranking: 20

Odds of top-five pick: 7.7 percent

A 3-9 Bears team dealt the Bengals their worst home loss since 2008.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9; 21.4)

Last week: 24-21 loss to Lions

Next: vs. Falcons, at Panthers, vs. Saints

Week 14 ranking: 24

Odds of top-five pick: 24.7 percent

The Bucs failed to sack Stafford a single time Sunday. He took advantage, completing 36 of 44 passes, including six straight on the Lions’ game-winning drive. It was the fifth time this season Tampa Bay failed to record a sack, a total matched by only San Francisco.

25. Miami Dolphins (6-7; 24.4)

Last week: 27-20 win over Patriots

Next: at Bills, at Chiefs, vs. Bills

Week 14 ranking: 26

Odds of top-five pick: 0.0 percent

Two weeks ago, I said that when the Dolphins next play the Patriots, we “might as well give New England a 14-0 lead now and skip right to the second quarter.” Oops. Sorry, Miami. No Dolphins jokes from me … for at least a week.

26. Chicago Bears (4-9; 23.0)

Last week: 33-7 win over Bengals

Next: at Lions, vs. Browns, at Vikings

Week 14 ranking: 27

Odds of top-five pick: 11.8 percent

The Bears scored at least 30 points for the first time this season. The Giants and the Browns remain as the only teams who haven’t.

27. Denver Broncos (4-9; 26.0)

Last week: 23-0 win over Jets

Next: at Colts, at Washington, vs. Chiefs

Week 14 ranking: 28

Odds of top-five pick: 49.9 percent

When under pressure, Trevor Siemian has earned a passer rating of 36.3, which ranks 32nd, according to Pro Football Focus. When blitzed, he has earned a rating of 71.4, which ranks 30th. When under pressure, Kirk Cousins has earned a rating more than twice as good as Siemian’s. When blitzed, he has earned an NFL-best rating of 115.5. *insert thinking face emoji here*

28. New York Jets (5-8; 26.6)

Last week: 23-0 loss to Broncos

Next: at Saints, vs. Chargers, at Patriots

Week 14 ranking: 25

Odds of top-five pick: 1.9 percent

With Bryce Petty starting in place of an injured Josh McCown on Sunday, the Jets’ season now amounts to this: You’re only paying attention to them if you play fantasy football and claimed their opponent’s defense.

29. San Francisco 49ers (3-10; 28.8)

Last week: 26-16 win over Texans

Next: vs. Titans, vs. Jacksonville, at Rams

Week 14 ranking: 30

Odds of top-five pick: 84.3 percent

It was going to be fun to watch the 49ers trade their No. 2 overall draft pick again to quarterback-needy team. Alas, they’ve started winning games.

30. New York Giants (2-11; 28.0)

Last week: 30-10 loss to Cowboys

Next: vs. Eagles, at Cardinals, vs. Washington

Week 14 ranking: 29

Odds of top-five pick: 97.3 percent

This Sunday, Eli Manning will extend his iron man streak to two straight starts.

31. Indianapolis Colts (4-9; 30.8)

Last week: 13-7 loss to Bills

Next: vs. Broncos, at Ravens, vs. Texans

Week 14 ranking: 30

Odds of top-five pick: 74.5 percent

If only a blizzard could block our view of the Colts every week.

32. Cleveland Browns (0-13; 31.8)

Last week: 27-21 loss to Packers

Next: vs. Ravens, at Bears, vs. Steelers

Week 14 ranking: 32

Odds of top-five pick: 100.0 percent

Since the Browns returned to Cleveland in 1999, they’ve lost 48 more games than the Bucs. Despite that, they still have a better all-time winning percentage (.513) than Tampa Bay (.387).

Playoff odds are from Football Outsiders. Contact Thomas Bassinger at [email protected] Follow @tometrics.

Weather Center
Comments